Experimental research — not a validated forecast. The indicators use current-vintage retrospective observations. A regime marked CONFIRMED is confirmed by the model's hysteresis rules, not by independent economic evidence. No investment recommendation is implied.
Interactive macro dashboard
Explore current-vintage growth and inflation momentum, regime classifications and financial conditions for the United States and euro area.
What the monitor measures
- Growth Momentum Index (GMI): standardized short-term signals from industrial production and unemployment improvement.
- Inflation Momentum Index (IMI): standardized CPI/HICP acceleration.
- Financial Conditions Index (FCI): a separate risk overlay; the US proxy uses sovereign yields and high-yield spreads while the euro-area proxy is yield-only. Their levels are not directly comparable.
- Regime classification: a four-quadrant diagnostic built on growth and inflation momentum, distinguished from stabilized and uncertain classifications.
Methodology and limitations
Three-month trailing smoothing and ±0.25 hysteresis are experimental research parameters. Officially unavailable observations are preserved; the series are not interpolated across gaps. Historical data are current-vintage, not a point-in-time investable backtest. Predictive power has not been established.
The interactive dashboard above contains the currently published research snapshot. Its generated timestamp is distinct from observation reference periods and source release dates.
For professional research enquiries
A-CLUSTER builds evidence-based macro analytics and decision-support research. Contact A-CLUSTER Research.