Italy | Quarterly National Accounts — Structural Macro Monitor
Executive-first synthesis of growth quality, investment structure, competitiveness, household demand, household financial behaviour, the corporate sector and the external sector.
Executive structural synthesis
Italy's structural macro picture is classified as constructive but mixed. Growth Quality: Investment-led growth. Investment Quality: Productive-capital intensive. Competitiveness: Mixed / broadly neutral. Household Demand: Durable-led discretionary demand. Household Income & Saving: Income-supported household position. Corporate Income & Investment: Investment expansion despite margin pressure. External Sector: Broadly neutral external contribution. Across the 7 modules, 2 are favourable, 4 mixed/neutral and 1 adverse.
| Module | Assessment | Secondary | Key metric | Metric label | Quarter | Status | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth Quality | Investment-led growth | Primary driver: Investment | 1.00 | Real GDP growth | 2026-Q2 | Mixed / neutral | Investment supporting growth; Strong household-demand contribution; Productivity / unit-labour-cost pressure |
| Investment Quality | Productive-capital intensive | Productive-capital proxy: 47.1% | 22.60 | GFCF / GDP | 2026-Q2 | Favourable | None |
| Competitiveness | Mixed / broadly neutral | Prod gap vs EU: -1.2 pp | NULC gap: -0.1 pp | -0.40 | Latest productivity/hour | 2026-Q2 | Mixed / neutral | Non-positive productivity growth |
| Household Demand | Durable-led discretionary demand | Primary category: Durables | 1.10 | Real household consumption | 2026-Q2 | Mixed / neutral | None |
| Household Income & Saving | Income-supported household position | Saving rate: 10.7% | 4Q change: +0.4 pp | 10.66 | Household saving rate | 2026-Q1 | Favourable | Actual final consumption per capita unavailable for selected country |
| Corporate Income & Investment | Investment expansion despite margin pressure | Investment rate: 26.4% | Profit share: 42.1% | 26.39 | Corporate investment rate | 2026-Q2 | Adverse | Corporate profit share down at least 1 pp from four quarters earlier |
| External Sector | Broadly neutral external contribution | Net exports: -0.01 pp | -0.01 | Net exports contribution | 2026-Q2 | Mixed / neutral | Domestic demand accompanied by import drag |
Quarterly scorecard
Each indicator uses its own latest available observation. EU-27 is compared in the same quarter shown for the selected country.
| Indicator | Measure | Quarter | Italy | EU-27 | Gap vs EU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 1.00 | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| Real GDP growth | % QoQ | 2026-Q2 | 0.20 | 0.70 | -0.50 |
| Productivity per person | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | -0.50 | 0.90 | -1.40 |
| Productivity per hour | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | -0.40 | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| Nominal unit labour cost | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 2.70 | 2.80 | -0.10 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | % GDP | 2026-Q2 | 22.60 | 21.50 | +1.10 |
| Household & NPISH consumption | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 1.20 | 1.20 | +0.00 |
| Exports | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 4.70 | 4.20 | +0.50 |
| Imports | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 4.90 | 3.90 | +1.00 |
| Real disposable income per capita | % QoQ | 2026-Q1 | 0.76 | 0.01 | +0.75 |
| Household saving rate | % | 2026-Q2 | 9.48 | — | — |
| Household investment rate | % | 2026-Q2 | 8.34 | — | — |
| Household net financial assets ratio | % | 2026-Q1 | 1477.27 | — | — |
| Corporate investment rate | % | 2026-Q2 | 26.39 | — | — |
| Corporate gross profit share | % | 2026-Q2 | 42.09 | — | — |
Growth anatomy
Expenditure-side percentage-point contributions used for the growth-mix classification. Imports are already signed in Eurostat's contribution measure.
| Engine | Contribution (pp) |
|---|---|
| Household consumption | +0.67 |
| Government consumption | +0.06 |
| Investment | +0.74 |
| Inventories & valuables | -0.45 |
| Exports | +1.46 |
| Imports | -1.47 |
| Net exports | -0.01 |
| Domestic demand | +1.02 |
| Residual / reconciliation | -0.01 |
Investment structure & quality
The fixed-investment mix in 2026-Q2 is classified as productive-capital intensive. GFCF stood at 22.6% of GDP versus 21.5% for EU-27. Machinery/equipment plus intellectual property accounted for 47.1% of GFCF, while construction accounted for 52.8%. Total real GFCF growth was +3.4% year-on-year in 2026-Q2.
| Asset | Code | Level (€m) | Share of GFCF | EU-27 share | Gap vs EU (pp) | Real growth (% YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwellings | N111G | 24,402.1 | 18.7% | 23.1% | -4.4 | -1.3 |
| Other buildings & structures | N112G | 44,433.1 | 34.1% | 26.8% | +7.2 | +8.3 |
| Machinery & equipment | N11MG | 44,269.9 | 33.9% | 29.8% | +4.2 | +1.1 |
| Cultivated biological resources | N115G | 202.1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.0 | -0.1 |
| Intellectual property products | N117G | 17,180.4 | 13.2% | 20.2% | -7.0 | +4.3 |
Productivity, labour cost & competitiveness
The current structural signal is classified as mixed / broadly neutral. On the latest common comparison quarter (2026-Q2), real labour productivity per hour grew -0.4% year-on-year versus +0.8% in EU-27. Nominal unit labour cost per hour increased +2.7% versus +2.8% in EU-27. Watchpoints: Non-positive productivity growth.
| Metric | Quarter | Country | EU-27 | Euro area | Gap vs EU | Gap vs EA | Latest country quarter | Latest country value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity per hour | 2026-Q2 | -0.40 | +0.80 | +0.60 | -1.20 | -1.00 | 2026-Q2 | -0.4 |
| Productivity per person | 2026-Q2 | -0.50 | +0.90 | +0.60 | -1.40 | -1.10 | 2026-Q2 | -0.5 |
| NULC per hour | 2026-Q2 | +2.70 | +2.80 | +2.60 | -0.10 | +0.10 | 2026-Q2 | 2.7 |
| NULC per person | 2026-Q2 | +2.50 | +2.80 | +2.70 | -0.30 | -0.20 | 2026-Q2 | 2.5 |
Household demand & consumption mix
The current household-demand mix is classified as durable-led discretionary demand. Real household consumption grew +1.1% year-on-year in 2026-Q2. Durables accounted for 8.3% of nominal household expenditure and services for 52.3% in 2026-Q2.
| Category | Code | Level (€m) | Share of consumption | EU-27 share | Gap vs EU (pp) | Real growth (% YoY) | Real growth quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable goods | P311_S14 | 28,594.0 | 8.3% | 8.1% | +0.2 | +6.1 | 2026-Q2 |
| Semi-durable goods | P312_S14 | 28,450.8 | 8.3% | 7.6% | +0.7 | +1.0 | 2026-Q2 |
| Non-durable goods | P313_S14 | 106,774.8 | 31.1% | 29.9% | +1.2 | +0.2 | 2026-Q2 |
| Services | P314_S14 | 179,698.3 | 52.3% | 54.4% | -2.1 | +0.9 | 2026-Q2 |
Household income, saving & balance sheet
Italy's household income/saving configuration is classified as income-supported household position. In 2026-Q1, real disposable income per capita changed +0.8% QoQ. The household saving rate was 10.7%. The saving rate changed +0.4 pp from four quarters earlier. Watchpoints: Actual final consumption per capita unavailable for selected country.
| Metric | Indicator | Measure | Adjustment | Quarter | Country | EU-27 | Euro area | Gap vs EU | Change vs 4Q ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real disposable income per capita | B6G_R_HAB_GR | % QoQ | SCA | 2026-Q1 | +0.76 | +0.01 | — | +0.75 | +0.52 |
| Real actual final consumption per capita | P4_R_HAB_GR | % QoQ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Household saving rate | SRG_S14_S15 | % | SCA | 2026-Q2 | +9.48 | — | — | — | -1.42 |
| Household investment rate | IRG_S14_S15 | % | SCA | 2026-Q2 | +8.34 | — | — | — | +0.00 |
| Household net financial assets ratio | NFW_S14_S15 | % | NSA | 2026-Q1 | +1477.27 | — | — | — | +31.14 |
Corporate income & investment
Italy's non-financial corporate sector is classified as investment expansion despite margin pressure. In 2026-Q2, the corporate investment rate was 26.4% and the gross profit share was 42.1%. Compared with four quarters earlier, the investment rate changed +0.9 pp and the profit share -1.4 pp.
| Metric | Indicator | Measure | Adjustment | Quarter | Country | EU-27 | Euro area | Gap vs EU | Change vs 4Q ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate investment rate | IRG_S11 | % | SCA | 2026-Q2 | +26.39 | — | — | — | +0.91 |
| Corporate gross profit share | B2G_B3G_RAT_S11 | % | SCA | 2026-Q2 | +42.09 | — | — | — | -1.36 |
External sector & trade contribution
The external-sector contribution is classified as broadly neutral external contribution. Net exports contributed -0.01 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026-Q2. Exports contributed +1.46 pp and imports -1.47 pp. Real exports grew +4.7% YoY while real imports grew +4.9% YoY. Watchpoints: Domestic demand accompanied by import drag.
| Metric | Contribution (pp) | Real growth (% YoY) | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | +1.46 | +4.70 | 2026-Q2 |
| Imports | -1.47 | +4.90 | 2026-Q2 |
| Net exports | -0.01 | — | 2026-Q2 |
| Domestic demand | +1.02 | — | 2026-Q2 |
A-CLUSTER Quarterly National Accounts — Structural Macro Monitor Summary
Executive structural synthesis across growth, investment, competitiveness, household demand, household income and saving, the corporate sector and the external sector.
Executive Dashboard
One-page synthesis of the growth mix, structural pulse and EU comparison.
Real GDP Growth
Year-on-year real GDP growth for the selected country, EU-27 and euro area.
Productivity per Hour
Real labour productivity per hour worked, year-on-year.
GDP Growth Contributions
Percentage-point expenditure contributions to annual real GDP growth.
European GDP Ranking
Cross-country comparison of real GDP growth for the latest available ranking quarter.
Household Consumption
Quarterly household consumption expenditure in current prices, by durability category where available.
Investment Structure & Quality
Composition of fixed investment, structural shares, EU comparison and investment-quality assessment.
Productivity, Labour Cost & Competitiveness
Productivity growth, nominal unit labour costs and relative performance versus EU-27 and the euro area.
Household Demand & Consumption Mix
Household expenditure composition and real demand momentum across durables, non-durables and services.
Household Income, Saving & Balance Sheet
Disposable income, actual consumption, saving, household investment and net financial assets from quarterly sector accounts.
Corporate Income & Investment
Corporate investment rate and gross profit share of non-financial corporations.
External Sector & Trade Contribution
Export, import and net-export contributions, trade growth and the source of external-sector support.
