Bulgaria | Quarterly National Accounts — Structural Macro Monitor
Executive-first synthesis of growth quality, investment structure, competitiveness, household demand and the external sector.
Executive structural synthesis
Bulgaria's quarterly national-accounts picture is classified as constructive but mixed. Growth Quality: Consumption-led growth. Investment Quality: Productive-capital intensive. Competitiveness: Broad competitiveness improvement. Household Demand: Data unavailable. External Sector: External drag on growth. Across the five modules, 2 are favourable, 2 mixed/neutral and 1 adverse.
| Module | Assessment | Secondary | Key metric | Metric label | Quarter | Status | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth Quality | Consumption-led growth | Primary driver: Household consumption | 2.80 | Real GDP growth | 2026-Q2 | Mixed / neutral | Import-intensive domestic demand; Investment supporting growth; Strong household-demand contribution |
| Investment Quality | Productive-capital intensive | Productive-capital proxy: 55.3% | 21.70 | GFCF / GDP | 2026-Q2 | Favourable | Strong real GFCF growth |
| Competitiveness | Broad competitiveness improvement | Prod gap vs EU: +2.1 pp | NULC gap: -1.3 pp | 2.90 | Latest productivity/hour | 2026-Q2 | Favourable | Large productivity gap versus EU |
| Household Demand | Data unavailable | Primary category: Unavailable | 7.00 | Real household consumption | 2026-Q2 | Mixed / neutral | Component coverage 7% |
| External Sector | External drag on growth | Net exports: -4.27 pp | -4.27 | Net exports contribution | 2026-Q2 | Adverse | Domestic demand accompanied by import drag |
Quarterly scorecard
Each indicator uses its own latest available observation. EU-27 is compared in the same quarter shown for the selected country.
| Indicator | Measure | Quarter | Bulgaria | EU-27 | Gap vs EU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 2.80 | 1.40 | +1.40 |
| Real GDP growth | % QoQ | 2026-Q2 | 0.70 | 0.70 | +0.00 |
| Productivity per person | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 2.60 | 0.90 | +1.70 |
| Productivity per hour | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 2.90 | 0.80 | +2.10 |
| Nominal unit labour cost | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 1.50 | 2.80 | -1.30 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | % GDP | 2026-Q2 | 21.70 | 21.50 | +0.20 |
| Household & NPISH consumption | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 8.90 | 1.20 | +7.70 |
| Exports | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 0.20 | 4.20 | -4.00 |
| Imports | % YoY | 2026-Q2 | 8.50 | 3.90 | +4.60 |
Growth anatomy
Expenditure-side percentage-point contributions used for the growth-mix classification. Imports are already signed in Eurostat's contribution measure.
| Engine | Contribution (pp) |
|---|---|
| Household consumption | +5.17 |
| Government consumption | -0.07 |
| Investment | +1.63 |
| Inventories & valuables | +0.52 |
| Exports | +0.09 |
| Imports | -4.36 |
| Net exports | -4.27 |
| Domestic demand | +7.25 |
| Residual / reconciliation | -0.18 |
Investment structure & quality
The fixed-investment mix in 2026-Q2 is classified as productive-capital intensive. GFCF stood at 21.7% of GDP versus 21.5% for EU-27. Machinery/equipment plus intellectual property accounted for 55.3% of GFCF, while construction accounted for 44.5%. Total real GFCF growth was +8.4% year-on-year in 2026-Q2. Watchpoints: Strong real GFCF growth.
| Asset | Code | Level (€m) | Share of GFCF | EU-27 share | Gap vs EU (pp) | Real growth (% YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwellings | N111G | 1,444.2 | 21.0% | 23.1% | -2.0 | +2.3 |
| Other buildings & structures | N112G | 1,616.7 | 23.5% | 26.8% | -3.3 | +2.6 |
| Machinery & equipment | N11MG | 3,073.6 | 44.7% | 29.8% | +15.0 | +11.1 |
| Cultivated biological resources | N115G | 9.3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 | +1.7 |
| Intellectual property products | N117G | 729.3 | 10.6% | 20.2% | -9.5 | +11.1 |
Productivity, labour cost & competitiveness
The current structural signal is classified as broad competitiveness improvement. On the latest common comparison quarter (2026-Q2), real labour productivity per hour grew +2.9% year-on-year versus +0.8% in EU-27. Nominal unit labour cost per hour increased +1.5% versus +2.8% in EU-27. Watchpoints: Large productivity gap versus EU.
| Metric | Quarter | Country | EU-27 | Euro area | Gap vs EU | Gap vs EA | Latest country quarter | Latest country value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity per hour | 2026-Q2 | +2.90 | +0.80 | +0.60 | +2.10 | +2.30 | 2026-Q2 | 2.9 |
| Productivity per person | 2026-Q2 | +2.60 | +0.90 | +0.60 | +1.70 | +2.00 | 2026-Q2 | 2.6 |
| NULC per hour | 2026-Q2 | +1.50 | +2.80 | +2.60 | -1.30 | -1.10 | 2026-Q2 | 1.5 |
| NULC per person | 2026-Q2 | +1.50 | +2.80 | +2.70 | -1.30 | -1.20 | 2026-Q2 | 1.5 |
Household demand & consumption mix
The current household-demand mix is classified as data unavailable. Real household consumption grew +7.0% year-on-year in 2026-Q2. Watchpoints: Component coverage 7%.
| Category | Code | Level (€m) | Share of consumption | EU-27 share | Gap vs EU (pp) | Real growth (% YoY) | Real growth quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable goods | P311_S14 | 1,437.5 | 7.5% | 8.1% | -0.6 | +3.0 | 2026-Q2 |
| Semi-durable goods | P312_S14 | — | — | 7.6% | — | — | None |
| Non-durable goods | P313_S14 | — | — | 29.9% | — | — | None |
| Services | P314_S14 | — | — | 54.4% | — | — | None |
External sector & trade contribution
The external-sector contribution is classified as external drag on growth. Net exports contributed -4.27 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026-Q2. Exports contributed +0.09 pp and imports -4.36 pp. Real exports grew +0.2% YoY while real imports grew +8.5% YoY. Watchpoints: Domestic demand accompanied by import drag.
| Metric | Contribution (pp) | Real growth (% YoY) | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | +0.09 | +0.20 | 2026-Q2 |
| Imports | -4.36 | +8.50 | 2026-Q2 |
| Net exports | -4.27 | — | 2026-Q2 |
| Domestic demand | +7.25 | — | 2026-Q2 |
A-CLUSTER Quarterly National Accounts — Structural Macro Monitor Summary
Executive structural synthesis across growth, investment, competitiveness, household demand and the external sector.
Executive Dashboard
One-page synthesis of the growth mix, structural pulse and EU comparison.
Real GDP Growth
Year-on-year real GDP growth for the selected country, EU-27 and euro area.
Productivity per Hour
Real labour productivity per hour worked, year-on-year.
GDP Growth Contributions
Percentage-point expenditure contributions to annual real GDP growth.
European GDP Ranking
Cross-country comparison of real GDP growth for the latest available ranking quarter.
Household Consumption
Quarterly household consumption expenditure in current prices, by durability category where available.
Investment Structure & Quality
Composition of fixed investment, structural shares, EU comparison and investment-quality assessment.
Productivity, Labour Cost & Competitiveness
Productivity growth, nominal unit labour costs and relative performance versus EU-27 and the euro area.
Household Demand & Consumption Mix
Household expenditure composition and real demand momentum across durables, non-durables and services.
External Sector & Trade Contribution
Export, import and net-export contributions, trade growth and the source of external-sector support.
