Bulgaria Quarterly National Accounts. Growth quality in focus.
The A-CLUSTER quarterly framework separates headline GDP from investment quality, productivity and labour costs, household demand and finances, the corporate cycle and the external contribution.
Seven modules describe the current growth mix.
The 2026-Q2 production vintage combines quarterly national accounts with the latest available structural and sector-account diagnostics. Missing sector-account observations are retained explicitly rather than imputed.
Growth quality
Consumption-led growth. Real GDP expanded 2.8% year on year. Domestic demand contributed +7.25 pp, but the expansion was import-intensive.
Investment quality
Productive-capital intensive. GFCF stood at 21.7% of GDP, real GFCF grew 8.4% YoY and the productive-capital proxy reached 55.3%.
Competitiveness
Broad competitiveness improvement. Productivity per hour grew 2.9% YoY, 2.1 pp above the EU benchmark, while NULC growth was 1.3 pp below the EU rate.
Household demand
Data unavailable. Aggregate real household consumption grew 7.0% YoY, but detailed durability-category coverage is incomplete.
Household income & saving
Household financial data incomplete. No common quarter is available for real disposable income per capita and the saving rate.
Corporate income & investment
Mixed corporate cycle. The current sector-account release does not provide a usable common quarter for the core corporate indicators.
External sector
External drag on growth. Exports contributed +0.09 pp and imports −4.36 pp, leaving net exports at −4.27 pp.
Constructive, but not uniformly strong.
Two modules are favourable, four mixed or neutral, and one adverse. Investment quality and competitiveness are supportive, while the external sector is the principal weakness and some sector-account diagnostics remain unavailable.
Domestic demand is carrying the expansion
Domestic demand contributed +7.25 pp, but net exports subtracted 4.27 pp, indicating a strongly import-intensive growth mix.
Investment momentum is strong
GFCF reached 21.7% of GDP and real GFCF grew 8.4% YoY, with a 55.3% productive-capital proxy.
Productivity is outperforming the EU benchmark
Productivity per hour grew 2.9% YoY while NULC growth remained below the EU rate, producing a favourable competitiveness signal.
Imports are the main drag
Real imports grew 8.5% YoY versus 0.2% for exports, leaving a −4.27 pp net-export contribution.