A-CLUSTER | MACRO INTELLIGENCE
EUROSTAT STS_TRTU_M · JUNE 2026
European Retail Demand Monitor

Is Europe spending more — or buying more?

Monthly real retail activity across the European Union and euro area, separating underlying sales volumes from nominal turnover and tracking the composition of household demand, with a five-year review of the gap between money spent and goods actually purchased.

EU27 real retail sales rose 1.4% year on year in June 2026, with a 0.2% monthly gain and 1.7% average YTD growth versus the same period of 2025. Non-food excluding fuel was the strongest major component at 3.0% YoY, while fuel volumes fell 2.5%.

EU27 Real Retail · YoY
+1.4%
Total retail volume, seasonally adjusted
EU27 · MoM
+0.2%
Latest monthly change
EU27 · YTD
+1.7%
Jan–Jun average vs Jan–Jun 2025
EU27 · 3M Momentum
+0.4%
Annualized change over latest 3 months

EU27 and euro-area snapshot

Real sales-volume indicators. Index base: 2021 = 100. Growth metrics are calculated from seasonally and calendar-adjusted index levels.

EU27

SegmentYoYMoMYTD3M ann.
Total retail+1.4%+0.2%+1.7%+0.4%
Food, beverages & tobacco+0.5%-0.5%+1.0%+1.6%
Non-food ex fuel+3.0%+0.5%+2.8%+1.4%
Automotive fuel-2.5%+1.7%-0.8%-10.7%

Euro area

SegmentYoYMoMYTD3M ann.
Total retail+1.3%+0.2%+1.6%+0.8%
Food, beverages & tobacco+0.6%-0.6%+1.3%+2.1%
Non-food ex fuel+2.5%+0.5%+2.5%+1.5%
Automotive fuel-4.5%+1.9%-2.3%-12.6%

Country ranking

EU member states ranked by year-on-year growth in real total retail sales volume.

Retail cycle by segment

EU27 versus euro area. The panels use a common 2021 = 100 index framework so the direction and persistence of the retail cycle can be compared directly.

Total retail volume

Food, beverages & tobacco

Non-food excluding fuel

Automotive fuel

Nominal turnover vs real volume

This comparison separates the monetary value of retail sales from the quantity-adjusted volume of sales. A widening gap indicates that nominal spending is running ahead of real purchasing volumes.

EU27

Euro area

Five-year review: spending versus purchasing power

The annual comparison below shows how much nominal retail turnover growth exceeded real sales-volume growth. The gap widened dramatically during the 2022–2023 price shock, then narrowed in 2024–2025 as real volumes stabilized. 2026 is year-to-date through June and is compared with Jan–Jun 2025.

EU27 · June 2026 turnover
126.3
2021 = 100; +26.3% versus the 2021 reference level
EU27 · June 2026 real volume
105.3
2021 = 100; only +5.3% versus the 2021 reference level
EU27 · index gap
21.0 pts
Nominal turnover index minus real-volume index
2022 peak annual gap
8.5 pp
EU27 nominal growth 10.2% vs real growth 1.7%

EU27 annual nominal vs real growth

Euro area annual nominal vs real growth

Annual nominal–real gap

What the last five years say

PeriodEU27 nominalEU27 realGap
2021+7.9%+5.6%+2.3 pp
2022+10.2%+1.7%+8.5 pp
2023+4.4%-2.0%+6.5 pp
2024+2.5%+1.4%+1.1 pp
2025+3.4%+2.5%+1.0 pp
2026 YTD+3.6%+1.7%+1.9 pp

The central story is not simply that Europeans spent more. From 2022 onward, nominal spending rose much faster than the quantity of goods purchased. By June 2026, the EU27 turnover index stood 21 points above the real-volume index, showing how much of the post-2021 increase in retail spending was absorbed by prices rather than translated into additional purchasing volumes.

Five-year structural leaders: volume growth, convergence and price gaps

This section scans every NACE Rev. 2 trade category available in the dataset and compares June 2021 with June 2026. Volume growth is calculated from VOL_SLS; the nominal–real gap is the change in NETTUR − VOL_SLS index points over the same period. Because the source dataset covers the full trade section, the ranking includes wholesale trade and motor-vehicle activities as well as retail trade.

Categories with the strongest EU27 real-volume growth

Categories with the largest widening of the nominal–real gap

Where did countries converge toward the EU increase?

A country is classified as a catch-up case when it started below the EU27 volume index in June 2021, recorded faster five-year volume growth than the EU27 in that category, and reduced its absolute distance from the EU27 index by June 2026.

CodeCategoryEU27 5Y volumeCatch-up countries
G465Wholesale of ICT equipment+17.3%Czechia (+26.3%)
G474Retail sale of ICT equipment+16.8%Sweden (+29.1%)
G4719Other retail in non-specialised stores+15.5%Spain (+20.6%), Sweden (+20.1%)
G4791Mail order & internet retail+15.5%No EU member met the strict catch-up rule
G451Sale of motor vehicles+15.4%No EU member met the strict catch-up rule

Which countries were outliers in the widening gap?

Outliers are identified across available EU member states using the standard 1.5×IQR rule on the five-year change in the nominal–real index gap. Where no statistical outlier exists, the country with the largest gap increase is shown for context.

CodeCategoryEU27 gap increaseCountry extremes
G473Automotive fuel retail+31.9 ptsRomania (+56.5 pts) · high outlier; Malta (+0.7 pts) · low outlier
G467Other specialised wholesale+30.5 ptsNo IQR outlier; highest: Romania (+51.3 pts)
G452Maintenance & repair of motor vehicles+29.4 ptsBulgaria (+99.4 pts), Lithuania (+82.4 pts), Romania (+73.8 pts) · high outliers
G463Wholesale of food, beverages & tobacco+29.3 ptsNo IQR outlier; highest: Bulgaria (+47.3 pts)
G47_FOODFood, beverages & tobacco retail+28.7 ptsNo IQR outlier; highest: Bulgaria (+58.7 pts)

Five-year reading

The strongest real expansion was not broad-based across everyday retail. It was concentrated in ICT equipment, non-specialised retail, internet/non-store retail and motor-vehicle activity. By contrast, the largest widening of the nominal–real gap occurred in categories exposed to large price shocks: automotive fuel, vehicle repair, food-related trade and specialised wholesale. The cross-country results also show that convergence was selective rather than general. Czechia caught up strongly in ICT wholesale; Sweden in ICT retail; and Spain and Sweden in other non-specialised retail. On the price-gap side, Romania and Bulgaria appear repeatedly among the most extreme cases, while Malta is an unusual low-gap outlier in automotive fuel.

Ranked retail table

All 27 EU member states. YTD is the average January–June 2026 index versus the average January–June 2025 index. 3M momentum is annualized.

#CountryTotal YoYMoMYTD3M ann.Food YoYNon-food ex fuelFuel YoY
1 Luxembourg +7.8% +2.8% +8.7% -8.8% +3.4% +14.1% -3.3%
2 Sweden +7.1% +1.4% +5.3% +4.8% +4.7% +10.1% +1.2%
3 Bulgaria +7.0% +0.4% +7.5% +0.3% +4.6% +9.0% +4.3%
4 Lithuania +5.7% +0.5% +6.6% +8.1% +3.4% +12.5% -6.4%
5 Denmark +5.1% 0.0% +3.6% -7.2% -0.7% +10.7% -16.0%
6 Cyprus +5.0% -0.9% +6.3% +7.6% +2.1% +10.6% -3.6%
7 Latvia +4.9% +0.8% +4.7% +3.4% +4.6% +5.9% +2.5%
8 Malta +4.1% +0.2% +5.8% +7.1% +4.6% +4.1% +6.7%
9 Czechia +3.7% -0.1% +3.9% 0.0% +2.1% +5.6% +0.2%
10 Hungary +3.4% -0.3% +4.2% -3.3% +1.8% +5.2% 0.0%
11 Poland +3.2% +0.6% +3.0% +6.2% -1.6% +3.3% +23.5%
12 Finland +2.7% -1.4% +3.1% -3.7% +2.0% +2.8% +9.7%
13 Portugal +2.7% +1.3% +4.0% +2.0% +1.3% +5.1% -2.3%
14 France +2.5% +0.4% +2.4% +3.0% +2.0% +4.5% -7.8%
15 Greece +1.9% -1.4% +3.2% +1.2% +2.4% +4.2% -6.6%
16 Slovenia +1.6% -0.6% +1.7% -5.6% +1.6% +1.2% +1.8%
17 Netherlands +1.5% +0.2% +1.1% -0.4% +1.8% +2.7%
18 Slovakia +0.7% +0.4% +0.1% -5.6% +0.6% +0.6% -0.9%
19 Spain +0.6% +0.4% +2.0% -2.5% +0.4% +3.0% -4.6%
20 Germany +0.6% 0.0% +0.9% +2.4% -0.4% +1.3% -1.5%
21 Ireland +0.5% +0.4% +0.8% +1.1% +1.6% +0.3% -3.5%
22 Estonia +0.4% +0.9% +3.0% -11.4% +1.2% -1.2% +0.1%
23 Austria +0.4% -0.1% +0.2% +0.8% +2.8% -1.2% -6.6%
24 Croatia +0.3% +1.5% +2.0% -2.7% +2.9% +1.7% -14.1%
25 Italy +0.2% 0.0% +0.6% -1.2% -1.4% +1.5% -0.4%
26 Belgium -0.1% +0.8% -0.1% -7.0% -1.1% +1.8% -2.0%
27 Romania -7.4% -1.3% -5.7% -11.1% -7.3% -6.7% -5.9%