EU International Trade Monitor
Executive scorecard
| Latest month (€m) | YoY % | 2026 YTD (€m) | YTD YoY % | 3M momentum % | Balance Δ YoY (€m) | Balance Δ YTD (€m) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flow | |||||||
| Imports | €232,421m | +10.3% | €1,578,692m | +5.8% | +5.6% | — | — |
| Exports | €230,997m | +8.2% | €1,557,605m | -0.8% | +4.3% | — | — |
| Trade balance | €-1,425m | — | €-21,088m | — | — | €-4,285m | €-99,118m |
Research flags
| Flag | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Material YTD balance shift | YTD balance change vs 2025: €-99.1bn |
| Export latest-vs-YTD divergence | Latest YoY +8.2% vs YTD -0.8% |
| Import concentration shift | HHI change: -62 |
| Major bilateral balance move — United States | United States: latest-month bilateral balance improved by €5.3bn; imports -1.9% YoY; exports +11.5% YoY. |
| Major bilateral balance move — China excluding Hong Kong | China excluding Hong Kong: latest-month bilateral balance deteriorated by €4.4bn; imports +8.6% YoY; exports -2.0% YoY. |
| Major bilateral balance move — Norway | Norway: latest-month bilateral balance deteriorated by €2.3bn; imports +34.3% YoY; exports +9.1% YoY. |
| Major YTD bilateral balance shift — United States | United States: YTD bilateral balance deteriorated by €61.0bn versus the same period of 2025; signal: recent improvement, but YTD remains weaker. |
| Major YTD bilateral balance shift — China excluding Hong Kong | China excluding Hong Kong: YTD bilateral balance deteriorated by €25.8bn versus the same period of 2025; signal: broad-based deterioration. |
| Major YTD bilateral balance shift — Taiwan | Taiwan: YTD bilateral balance deteriorated by €10.5bn versus the same period of 2025; signal: broad-based deterioration. |
Trade regime classification
| Dimension | Signal | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| External Balance | deteriorating | YTD balance change: €-99.1bn; rolling-12M change: €-98.5bn |
| Export Momentum | recovering | Latest YoY +8.2%, YTD -0.8%, 3M momentum +4.3% |
| Import Demand | accelerating | Latest YoY +10.3%, YTD +5.8%, 3M momentum +5.6% |
| Manufacturing Trade Position | manufacturing surplus | Manufacturing balance €20,109m vs energy balance €-27,158m |
Latest-month bilateral balance movers
| Country | Imports €m | Import YoY % | Exports €m | Export YoY % | Balance €m | Balance Δ YoY €m | Bilateral signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | €30,526m | -1.9% | €45,862m | +11.5% | €15,336m | €5,316m | recent improvement, but YTD remains weaker |
| China excluding Hong Kong | €51,546m | +8.6% | €16,201m | -2.0% | €-35,346m | €-4,405m | broad-based deterioration |
| Norway | €10,739m | +34.3% | €5,879m | +9.1% | €-4,860m | €-2,250m | broad-based deterioration |
| Viet Nam | €7,267m | +32.4% | €1,067m | -7.0% | €-6,200m | €-1,859m | broad-based deterioration |
| United Kingdom | €13,818m | -1.0% | €30,320m | +2.8% | €16,502m | €959m | broad-based improvement |
| South Korea | €6,673m | +16.7% | €4,776m | +0.5% | €-1,897m | €-933m | recent deterioration, but YTD remains stronger |
| Türkiye | €8,636m | -0.8% | €8,846m | -7.8% | €210m | €-675m | broad-based deterioration |
| Algeria | €2,798m | +23.5% | €1,305m | -1.8% | €-1,492m | €-556m | recent deterioration, YTD broadly stable |
YTD bilateral balance shifts
| Country | 2025 YTD Balance €m | 2026 YTD Balance €m | Balance Δ YTD €m | Bilateral signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | €137,369m | €76,355m | €-61,014m | recent improvement, but YTD remains weaker |
| China excluding Hong Kong | €-216,786m | €-242,635m | €-25,848m | broad-based deterioration |
| Taiwan | €-5,247m | €-15,776m | €-10,529m | broad-based deterioration |
| Viet Nam | €-30,001m | €-39,256m | €-9,255m | broad-based deterioration |
| Switzerland | €43,877m | €50,559m | €6,682m | broad-based improvement |
| United Kingdom | €109,167m | €114,277m | €5,110m | broad-based improvement |
| Norway | €-20,911m | €-25,869m | €-4,958m | broad-based deterioration |
| Russia | €-125m | €3,564m | €3,690m | monthly stable, YTD stronger |
High-growth bilateral outliers
| Country | Imports €m | Import YoY % | Exports €m | Export YoY % | Balance €m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libya | €2,187m | +15.4% | €838m | +76.6% | €-1,350m |
| Malaysia | €3,318m | +32.0% | €2,157m | +55.7% | €-1,161m |
| Taiwan | €4,983m | +47.6% | €3,687m | +43.1% | €-1,296m |
| Hong Kong | €481m | +45.4% | €2,110m | +13.8% | €1,630m |
| Norway | €10,739m | +34.3% | €5,879m | +9.1% | €-4,860m |
| Thailand | €3,152m | +33.9% | €1,547m | +20.6% | €-1,605m |
| Indonesia | €1,461m | -10.3% | €829m | -33.8% | €-632m |
| Viet Nam | €7,267m | +32.4% | €1,067m | -7.0% | €-6,200m |
Integrated diagnosis
1. Current state
In 2026-07, extra-EU imports were €232,421m (+10.3% YoY) and exports were €230,997m (+8.2% YoY). The monthly goods balance was €-1,425m. Relative to the same month a year earlier, the balance deteriorated by €4.3bn.
2. Broader trend and momentum
Imports are +5.8% YTD and 3M momentum is +5.6%, so import demand is classified as accelerating. Exports are -0.8% YTD and 3M momentum is +4.3%, producing an export signal of recovering. The latest-month YoY rate should therefore be separated from the accumulated YTD performance.
3. Partner drivers
The largest positive contributors to the YoY import change were China excluding Hong Kong (+4,081m), Norway (+2,743m), Switzerland (+2,035m). The largest negative contributors were United States (-597m), Saudi Arabia (-452m), Indonesia (-168m). For exports, the largest positive contributors were United States (+4,719m), Switzerland (+2,548m), Taiwan (+1,111m), while the negative contributors were Türkiye (-746m), Indonesia (-423m), China excluding Hong Kong (-324m).
4. Product drivers
At the non-overlapping SITC 0–9 level, positive import contributions were led by Machinery and transport equipment (+13,457m), Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (+5,130m), Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. (+2,527m); negative import contributions were Food and live animals (-1,073m), Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material (-394m), Beverages and tobacco (-43m). Positive export contributions were led by Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. (+5,278m), Machinery and transport equipment (+4,503m), Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (+2,874m). No SITC group made a negative YoY contribution to exports in the latest observation.
5. Structural trade position
The largest current product surplus is in Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. (€17,908m), while the largest deficit is in Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (€-27,158m). Across the main manufacturing SITC groups (5–8), the aggregate balance is €20,109m, while the energy/mineral-fuels balance is €-27,158m. This allows the aggregate external-balance signal to be separated from structural energy dependence and manufacturing performance.
6. Price-volume signal
At the latest common observation (2026-06), nominal imports growth was +9.5% YoY, consistent with higher unit values despite weaker real volumes. At the latest common observation (2026-06), nominal exports growth was +6.8% YoY, consistent with higher unit values despite weaker real volumes.
7. Concentration
Import partner HHI is 1046 versus 1108 a year earlier; the top five identified partners account for 58.1% of identified partner imports. Export HHI is 976, with the top five at 59.4%. HHI is treated here as a diversification diagnostic, not as a geopolitical-risk model.
8. Country deep-dive — United States
EU imports from United States are €30,526m (-1.9% YoY), while exports to United States are €45,862m (+11.5% YoY). The latest-month bilateral balance is €15,336m. Across January–July, the bilateral balance is €76,355m, versus €137,369m in the same period of 2025; the YTD change is €-61,014m. The combined bilateral signal is recent improvement, but YTD remains weaker.
9A. Latest-month bilateral movers
The latest-month comparison captures current direction rather than the accumulated annual position. United States: latest-month bilateral balance improved by €5.3bn; imports -1.9% YoY; exports +11.5% YoY. China excluding Hong Kong: latest-month bilateral balance deteriorated by €4.4bn; imports +8.6% YoY; exports -2.0% YoY. Norway: latest-month bilateral balance deteriorated by €2.3bn; imports +34.3% YoY; exports +9.1% YoY. Viet Nam: latest-month bilateral balance deteriorated by €1.9bn; imports +32.4% YoY; exports -7.0% YoY. United Kingdom: latest-month bilateral balance improved by €1.0bn; imports -1.0% YoY; exports +2.8% YoY.
9B. Accumulated YTD bilateral movers
The YTD comparison captures the accumulated bilateral position from January through the latest available month. United States: YTD bilateral balance deteriorated by €61.0bn versus the same period of 2025; signal: recent improvement, but YTD remains weaker. China excluding Hong Kong: YTD bilateral balance deteriorated by €25.8bn versus the same period of 2025; signal: broad-based deterioration. Taiwan: YTD bilateral balance deteriorated by €10.5bn versus the same period of 2025; signal: broad-based deterioration. Viet Nam: YTD bilateral balance deteriorated by €9.3bn versus the same period of 2025; signal: broad-based deterioration. Switzerland: YTD bilateral balance improved by €6.7bn versus the same period of 2025; signal: broad-based improvement. A monthly improvement can therefore coexist with a weaker accumulated YTD position, and vice versa.
9C. High-growth bilateral outliers
High-growth outliers are kept separate from balance movers so that small-base percentage effects do not dominate the macro ranking. Libya: imports +15.4% YoY; exports +76.6% YoY; bilateral balance €-1,350m. Malaysia: imports +32.0% YoY; exports +55.7% YoY; bilateral balance €-1,161m. Taiwan: imports +47.6% YoY; exports +43.1% YoY; bilateral balance €-1,296m. Hong Kong: imports +45.4% YoY; exports +13.8% YoY; bilateral balance €1,630m. Norway: imports +34.3% YoY; exports +9.1% YoY; bilateral balance €-4,860m.
10. Counter-case / caution
A weaker goods balance is not automatically evidence of weaker competitiveness. Imports may rise because of stronger domestic investment, intermediate-input demand or energy prices; exports may be affected by global demand, exchange rates and one-off high-value shipments. Monthly trade data are volatile, so rolling-12-month, YTD and contribution evidence should carry more weight than a single monthly print.
11. Total assessment
The EU extra-EU goods position currently shows that imports are expanding faster than exports across the year to date, and the trade balance has deteriorated on a YTD basis by €99.1bn versus the comparable period of 2025. However, export momentum is recovering, while import demand is accelerating; the latest monthly signal therefore differs from the accumulated YTD picture. The composition is critical: the manufacturing balance remains in surplus, whereas the energy/mineral-fuels balance remains deeply negative. This means the aggregate deterioration should not automatically be read as a broad competitiveness loss. The most defensible diagnosis is that the external balance is deteriorating, with structural energy dependence and the composition of machinery/capital-goods imports playing an important role, while recent export momentum needs several further releases before it can be treated as a durable reversal.
Total assessment
The EU extra-EU goods position currently shows that imports are expanding faster than exports across the year to date, and the trade balance has deteriorated on a YTD basis by €99.1bn versus the comparable period of 2025. However, export momentum is recovering, while import demand is accelerating; the latest monthly signal therefore differs from the accumulated YTD picture. The composition is critical: the manufacturing balance remains in surplus, whereas the energy/mineral-fuels balance remains deeply negative. This means the aggregate deterioration should not automatically be read as a broad competitiveness loss. The most defensible diagnosis is that the external balance is deteriorating, with structural energy dependence and the composition of machinery/capital-goods imports playing an important role, while recent export momentum needs several further releases before it can be treated as a durable reversal.
Trade trend
Monthly and rolling 12M balance
Momentum
Import partner contributions
Export partner contributions
SITC product contributions
Structural product balance
Price vs volume
Partner concentration
United States trade trend
United States product drivers
Latest-month bilateral balance movers
YTD bilateral balance shifts
High-growth bilateral outliers
